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Baseball is a game where numbers tell the story. It’s a game full of statistical underdogs and numbers-driven athletes looking to improve the 1% they can get better. For the Sanford River Rats, the numbers uncover a symphony of contact and chaos in the box, and volatility on the mound.

 

THE HITTING NUMBERS

It’s a common thought when watching baseball: “Home runs equal more wins.” But in the case of the Rats, they completely flip that idea. This team thrives on an atmosphere of getting on base as a priority, with the sole primary goal to create traffic. The philosophy is not to wait on just one big hit to score; it’s about creating constant pressure by getting on base, running the bases aggressively, and forcing the defense into mistakes. Dawson Mock is a player that fits this archetype perfectly. He has 25 walks so far this season, paired with 18 stolen bases and counting. Leading his team with a .545 on-base percentage means he’s reaching first on a free pass 50% of the time. This is the core of how the River Rats score their runs: getting players on base.

The team also thrives on what is known as “situational hitting.” This means using your at-bat to score runs even if it means sacrificing a player’s at-bat. Fourteen sacrifice hits totaled this year showcase the selfless approach at the plate. Even when generating outs, they generate runs. This is what I call a “productive out,” as the fly out may retire Xavier Lopez for the inning, but it can score the tying or leading run after a walk and two stolen bases by Dawson Mock.

 

THE PITCHING DIGITS

The Rats’ pitching staff works on a “bend but don’t break” philosophy. With 164 strikeouts recorded in 142 1/3 innings, their K/9 comes out to an excellent 10.4, indicating a powerful presence of good arms able to overwhelm the strike zone.

Despite some control issues, they are very effective at limiting hits, only allowing 119 in those 142 innings. This equates to 7.5 hits per 9, suggesting they are difficult to hit squarely.

Much like the second-place Orlando Snappers, the Rats benefit from allowing the defense to diminish hits. When the ball is put in play, it’s either the speed-filled outfield usually consisting of Mock and Cameron King, or the glove-savvy infield with Braden Calise, Stewart Puckett, and Dawson Harman, all with a fielding percentage over .938.

 

Statistical Synergy

 

The pitching and batting cores of the lineup come together to build a winning formula, where one’s strength is another’s safety net.

The offense’s ability to consistently score runs is the ultimate safety net for the pitching staff. With a high walk rate, it is less dangerous to walk batters when working with a lead of five or six runs as opposed to a one-run game. The offense can grind down pitchers with their discipline and wear down a defense with their baserunning aggressiveness, allowing for the starting pitching staff to churn out innings and retire batters.

 

THE SUM

 

The team has an identity of overwhelming, multifaceted pressure. They force perfect pitches because if you walk them, they’ll steal a base. Make a defensive error? They are 90 feet from scoring. And after they have worn down an opposing pitching staff, they bring out their aces who have the velocity to miss barrels and generate strikeouts. Their success is built on a model that contradicts itself. They’ve become elite in the categories of striking batters out and scoring runs in bunches, regardless of their walk rate. It’s a fascinating case study of baseball analytics, proving a team can amplify its strengths to overcome weaknesses that can paralyze a team.

 

The path to their victories has been simple: outscore early.

From a purely statistical standpoint, the Sanford River Rats are a legitimate phenomenon.

 

Christian Bussiere, Daytona State